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The Math Shows MDY Can Go To $302
ETF Channel Staff - Thursday, October 27, 9:16 AM

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF (MDY), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $301.95 per unit.

With MDY trading at a recent price near $275.56 per unit, that means that analysts see 9.58% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of MDY's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Ascena Retail Group Inc (ASNA), AMC Networks Inc (AMCX), and Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG). Although ASNA has traded at a recent price of $5.01/share, the average analyst target is 74.65% higher at $8.75/share. Similarly, AMCX has 28.00% upside from the recent share price of $53.14 if the average analyst target price of $68.02/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting THG to reach a target price of $93.00/share, which is 21.16% above the recent price of $76.76. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of ASNA, AMCX, and THG:

ASNA, AMCX, and THG Relative Performance Chart

Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF MDY $275.56 $301.95 9.58%
Ascena Retail Group Inc ASNA $5.01 $8.75 74.65%
AMC Networks Inc AMCX $53.14 $68.02 28.00%
Hanover Insurance Group Inc THG $76.76 $93.00 21.16%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

The average analyst target price data upon which this article was based, is courtesy of data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com.
Get the latest Zacks research report on ASNA FREE
Get the latest Zacks research report on AMCX FREE
Get the latest Zacks research report on THG FREE

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